e gli ho parlato del forum sulla bolla immobiliare ...e mi (anzi ci) ha risposto....
doctorhousingbubble e' un sito davvero importante, pensate che economisti premi nobel come Krugman e Schiller hanno dichiarato che lo leggono quotidianamente!
Io alla fine gli ho chiesto se mette sul suo sito il link del nostro (nostro? lo considero un po' anche io, scusate l'appropriazione indebita...) forum.
Comunque ecco qui quello che ha risposto:
(a proposito: Eventually it does like here in the U.S. significa alla fine accadra' come qui negli USA)
From: Dr Housing Bubble
Sent: venerdì 4 marzo 2011 18.12
To:
Subject: RE: Italian real estate bubble
Thank you for the e-mail. I have gotten similar e-mails from Australia and Canada. This was a global housing bubble. That is great that you are exposing this. I would continue to do what you are doing and posting information. These kind of sites do well with local experts and you seen to have knowledge of the Italian market. I'm sure there are other bloggers in Italy covering the same thing and you should contact them and work closely with them to get the word out. Eventually it does like here in the U.S. Now we have many people that are aware of the gaming of the system.
I wish you the best in your site!
Cheers,
Dr. HB
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Subject: Italian real estate bubble
Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2011 16:00:04 +0100
From: xxx
To: Dr Housing Bubble
I know we (italians) are always at the outskirt of every fenomena in the world, but i would like to tell you that here we had a bubble comparable in size with what you had in the usa.
But it is deflating very slowly.
A few numbers: from yera 1999 to 2008 real estate prices more than doubled, yet most media refuse to admit we are in a bubble, while GDP and personal income lagged more than everywhere in the civilized world.
Reasons?
1 objectively family leverage, while on the rise is way lower than in almost every other developed country
2 foreclosure procedures are VERY slow (at least 3 years)
But most important:
3 real estate developers are heavily indebted to the banking system, BUT are also major shareholders of the same banks they owe more than their net worth
4 Most big insurance and banks have very large capital invested real estate, devaluation of their holdings would make it hard to meet capital requirements, ditto for their medium size debtors
5 most mainstream media outlets are owned by the same banking/real estate/insurance "collective tchaebol" that I have been describing above, and keep saying that there has not been a bubble in Italy and that real estate investment in italy is sound and that the prices will start up again next year
6 the real estate market is totally opaque, there is NO way of knowing the real price at which a house has been sold, so big real estate holders make the information, the price and the market.
Consider that, due to the low wages of the italian economy, most people live in houses that are worth 12/15 years of their current pretax income. With no income rise in sight.
Something IS actually happening: many big banks - unicredit, MPS, Intesa - are silently starting to create rmbs for 5/10 Billion euros per vehicle, that have of course AAA rating from the rating agencies. Does it mean that they are sensing that the actual prices cannot be held for long?
We have a small forum at:
freeforumzone.leonardo.it/forum.aspx?c=150353&f=150353
So please help us
Leone